Last summer Rafa Benitez was tasked with overhauling a Newcastle squad that had just been relegated and making it fit for the purpose of winning promotion back to the top flight. His hard work in the summer transfer window paid off and the likes of Dwight Gayle and Matt Ritchie inspired a late surge that saw the Magpies overhaul Brighton and win the Championship. However, they will need to seriously invest if they are to stave off relegation and thrive in the season ahead. Benitez has been mainly frustrated thus far in his efforts to bolster a squad that was too good for the Championship but is not good enough for the Premiership. If they are to succeed in the top flight and re-establish themselves as a force in the division, Newcastle will need to improve in several departments. Here are the five key factors that will impact upon Newcastle’s league finish next season:
Keeping Benitez
Earlier this summer Benitez was said to be so frustrated by Newcastle’s lack of progress in the transfer market that he was threatening to walk away. The Magpies are lucky to have a manager of his calibre, who has won the Champions League and has coached the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea and Real Madrid. To lose him would be a devastating blow, and it is encouraging to hear that he blames the “crazy” market and the huge sums being lavished by fellow Premiership clubs rather than the ambition and negotiating skills of his own club. With Benitez in charge, Newcastle have every chance of enjoying a strong 2017/18 campaign.
Recruitment
Newcastle’s position in the league next season will live and die by the strength of their recruitment drive, both during the remainder of the summer and in January. Mike Ashley has promised Benitez every penny the club generates to improve the squad, and he should have a good £100 million to spend this summer. Newcastle have so far laid out just £17 million on Florian Lejeune and Christian Atsu, who was on loan at the club last season, so the current squad is pretty much the same as last campaign. They have missed out already on targets like Tammy Abraham, who joined Swansea, and been thwarted in the majority of their dealings. But there is a sense now that the transfer merry-go-round will go into overdrive after major dominoes like Romelu Lukaku started to fall. Newcastle fans can also take heart from the departure of Graham Carr, who presided over some of the worst signings in Newcastle history: Florian Thauvin, Remy Cabella, Emmanuel Riviere, Seydou Doumbia, Sylvain Marveaux, Yoan Gouffron, Facundo Ferreyra, the list goes on and on. Benitez appears to have wrested control of recruitment and can usher in a new era. Last summer he bought seasoned British players that he knew would earn the club promotion, and now he needs to buy players with Premiership experience rather than spend lavish extravagant sums on obscure imports that have never played in the division.
Finishing above fellow promoted clubs
Newcastle finished ahead of Brighton and Huddersfield last season and should have far more clout in the transfer market, so they should be able to maintain that superiority next season. Bookmakers have Newcastle as 4/6 favourites to finish the 2017-18 season as the top promoted club, ahead of Brighton at 12/5, and there is every reason to think they can achieve that. If you click here for the latest betting odds, you will see that Newcastle are 4/1 to be relegated, which ranks them above Brighton, Huddersfield, Watford, Burnley and Swansea. Finishing above those clubs should be the bare minimum.
Tightening defensively
To do so, however, and to challenge the likes of West Brom, Crystal Palace, Stoke, Southampton, West Ham and Bournemouth for a top half finish, Newcastle need to become a lot more disciplined and organised at the back. They conceded 65 goals in 2015/16 and were duly relegated, and shipped 40 goals against Championship opposition last season. Jamaal Lascelles is improving all the time and he was one of only three Newcastle players to make the Championship Team of the Year, but he could do with a stronger partner at the back, an experienced head that knows the league inside out.
Goals
Teams that struggle to find the back of the net always go down, as Middlesbrough showed last season. They defended doggedly but could not win enough games because they lacked a proven goal scorer. The fitness of Dwight Gayle will be crucial as he enjoyed by far the best minutes per goals ratio in the Championship last season and is already off to flyer in preseason friendlies. But they cannot rely solely on him. Aleksandr Mitrovic has flattered to deceive, while Ayoze Perez buzzes around and gets the odd goal but is inconsistent, and Newcastle need to invest in more firepower. Jermain Defoe would have been perfect, and Newcastle need someone in that mould: an experienced striker that will guarantee goals in the top flight. Charlie Austin would be a good signing, or they could show real ambition and go for Olivier Giroud or Theo Walcott. That might sound a bit optimistic, but Newcastle should be striving to reassert themselves as a real force in the league rather than a yo-yo club, and to do that requires a show of confidence.
Author bio
Martin Green is an experienced sports writer and has been covering the Premiership for many years. He is also a tipster and appears on various talk shows offering predictions.
